I’m not sure where/when the Triple Crown season truly begins in earnest, but there’s a case to be made for the Lecomte Stakes at the Fair Grounds. We’re about 100 days out from the big race now so I guess it’s time I kick my interest/coverage up a couple of notches.
I haven’t been back down to New Orleans in several years, but I really dug Fair Grounds, where I had some of the best racetrack food I’ve eaten, particularly the red beans and rice with andouille. I don’t remember too much else about the trip other than it was pre-Katrina, we were there for my man Hal’s bachelor party, and whatever you do, you don’t want to end up going drink for drink with the guys from Michigan Blacksnake. Oh, one other thing: we went to a game at the local arena to see the Hornets play the Cavs because they had a kid named Lebron James who was supposed to be OK. Whatever happened to him?
Anyway. . .
I’m not gonna spend much time on the Dorochenko entry, #1 ADENA’S CHANCE and #1A HERO OF ORDER (drawn post 10). Hero’s last race was probably bias-aided and neither has form or figs to make them any less than 50-1.
Like Blake Griffin, #3 TED’S FOLLY is an Oklahoma-bred, but unlike my favorite Kia spokesperson, Ted is not a superstar. That said, he is super cool. He cost about the same as a meal for two at Per Se and has now won six in a row, doing so n the fashion that gets books written about horses — he’s a stone closer. His last two races do represent a step up on some of the advanced figs I look at, but I still think the seven-peat might be out of reach on the step up in class. I’d love to be wrong and have Steve Haskin’s The Story Of Ted’s Folly hitting the bookshelves about this time next year. 20-1.
#4 MR. BOWLING might be an underlay. He always takes money and might well do so again here. He had a little trouble last time I thought but that’s mitigated by the fact that the race didn’t come back very fast and the form is working out pretty blah. He’s got some talent and you can build a case certainly but the value is just unlikely to be there. 15-1.
Another to bring a win streak to the party is #5 EXFACTOR. The race two back was probably a bit flow-aided but at least the figure was fast. On pedigree, he doesn’t need to stay the mile, but he certainly could, especially at this time of year. He’s a likely winner I’ll price up at 5-1.
The next two gates will be occupied by the Zayat entry, #2 DAN AND SHEILA (what? did he run out of Z names?) and #2B Z DAGER. The latter doesn’t look fast enough but the former could make an impact assuming normal out improvement. I’m going to call the entry 10-1 for right now, knowing that this is a case where the market might be telling us valuable information about how Dan and Sheila’s progress is coming along.
#6 SEVEN LIVELY SINS made a nice impression in the Iroquois and you can probably just draw a line through the Delta Jackpot, where they were probably just trying to squeeze one race too many out of a promising 2 year old campaign. The worktab for the three-year old debut looks excellent to me, especially for a good, conservative trainer like Al Stall. I love that he’s got early foot and while this is no router pedigree, the Iroquois run (with an honest raceflow) suggests the distance will be within his reach. Yes, I see he’s lost ground in the lane every start but there are other factors at work there possibly. I’d bet him at his ML price and will call him 7/2 on my line. That might even be a hair high.
#7 is ALEXANDER THE(not so)GREAT. 100-1.
I thought #8 HAMMERS TERROR might be a turf horse but the run last time and a closer look at the full pedigree (second dam had some dirt pedigree power) suggest otherwise. The figs look good, though perhaps is notable the dirt race was slower than the wax ones. All in all I see an intriguing prospect from an outfit I like and trust. A contender at 6-1.
D Wayne off the plane? Wait, it’s not 1988. Make #9 CHALYBEATE SPRINGS 50-1 and forget what I just said.
#10 CAPETOWN DEVIL is a course and distance winner who has run fast enough to deserve a second look, at the least. I’m a little lukewarm if only because last time was one of those times — not so rare in racing really — where breaking poorly actually probably helped him as the race set up for a closer. 10-1.
#11 SHARED PROPERTY was probably flattered by race flow last time as well, but you don’t have to downgrade him too much off that is it was a Grade 1 and it was wax. His first two races were good enough to make an impact here, one on dirt, one a win in a Grade 3, though again, the latter was flow aided. The post is less than ideal but there’s too much speed and talent here to make any more than 6-1.
CONCLUSION: There are lots of chances here obviously but the lean for now is towards SEVEN LIVELY SINS and HAMMERS TERROR. The specifics of the bet will be determined by their prices and appearances, as well as those of the other logicals, particularly EXFACTOR.