LECOMTE STAKES Preview

I’m not sure where/when the Triple Crown season truly begins in earnest, but there’s a case to be made for the Lecomte Stakes at the Fair Grounds. We’re about 100 days out from the big race now so I guess it’s time I kick my interest/coverage up a couple of notches.

I haven’t been back down to New Orleans in several years, but I really dug Fair Grounds, where I had some of the best racetrack food I’ve eaten, particularly the red beans and rice with andouille. I don’t remember too much else about the trip other than it was pre-Katrina, we were there for my man Hal’s bachelor party, and whatever you do, you don’t want to end up going drink for drink with the guys from Michigan Blacksnake. Oh, one other thing: we went to a game at the local arena to see the Hornets play the Cavs because they had a kid named Lebron James who was supposed to be OK. Whatever happened to him?

Anyway. . .

I’m not gonna spend much time on the Dorochenko entry, #1 ADENA’S CHANCE and #1A HERO OF ORDER (drawn post 10). Hero’s last race was probably bias-aided and neither has form or figs to make them any less than 50-1.

Like Blake Griffin, #3 TED’S FOLLY is an Oklahoma-bred, but unlike my favorite Kia spokesperson, Ted is not a superstar. That said, he is super cool. He cost about the same as a meal for two at Per Se and has now won six in a row, doing so n the fashion that gets books written about horses — he’s a stone closer. His last two races do represent a step up on some of the advanced figs I look at, but I still think the seven-peat might be out of reach on the step up in class. I’d love to be wrong and have Steve Haskin’s The Story Of Ted’s Folly hitting the bookshelves about this time next year. 20-1.

#4 MR. BOWLING might be an underlay. He always takes money and might well do so again here. He had a little trouble last time I thought but that’s mitigated by the fact that the race didn’t come back very fast and the form is working out pretty blah. He’s got some talent and you can build a case certainly but the value is just unlikely to be there. 15-1.

Another to bring a win streak to the party is #5 EXFACTOR. The race two back was probably a bit flow-aided but at least the figure was fast. On pedigree, he doesn’t need to stay the mile, but he certainly could, especially at this time of year. He’s a likely winner I’ll price up at 5-1.

The next two gates will be occupied by the Zayat entry, #2 DAN AND SHEILA (what? did he run out of Z names?) and #2B Z DAGER. The latter doesn’t look fast enough but the former could make an impact assuming normal out improvement. I’m going to call the entry 10-1 for right now, knowing that this is a case where the market might be telling us valuable information about how Dan and Sheila’s progress is coming along.

#6 SEVEN LIVELY SINS made a nice impression in the Iroquois and you can probably just draw a line through the Delta Jackpot, where they were probably just trying to squeeze one race too many out of a promising 2 year old campaign. The worktab for the three-year old debut looks excellent to me, especially for a good, conservative trainer like Al Stall. I love that he’s got early foot and while this is no router pedigree, the Iroquois run (with an honest raceflow) suggests the distance will be within his reach. Yes, I see he’s lost ground in the lane every start but there are other factors at work there possibly. I’d bet him at his ML price and will call him 7/2 on my line. That might even be a hair high.

#7 is ALEXANDER THE(not so)GREAT. 100-1.

I thought #8 HAMMERS TERROR might be a turf horse but the run last time and a closer look at the full pedigree (second dam had some dirt pedigree power) suggest otherwise. The figs look good, though perhaps is notable the dirt race was slower than the wax ones. All in all I see an intriguing prospect from an outfit I like and trust. A contender at 6-1.

D Wayne off the plane? Wait, it’s not 1988. Make #9 CHALYBEATE SPRINGS 50-1 and forget what I just said.

#10 CAPETOWN DEVIL is a course and distance winner who has run fast enough to deserve a second look, at the least. I’m a little lukewarm if only because last time was one of those times — not so rare in racing really — where breaking poorly actually probably helped him as the race set up for a closer. 10-1.

#11 SHARED PROPERTY was probably flattered by race flow last time as well, but you don’t have to downgrade him too much off that is it was a Grade 1 and it was wax. His first two races were good enough to make an impact here, one on dirt, one a win in a Grade 3, though again, the latter was flow aided. The post is less than ideal but there’s too much speed and talent here to make any more than 6-1.

CONCLUSION: There are lots of chances here obviously but the lean for now is towards SEVEN LIVELY SINS and HAMMERS TERROR. The specifics of the bet will be determined by their prices and appearances, as well as those of the other logicals, particularly EXFACTOR.

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SATURDAY AT THE BIG A

I’m not going to lie to you. My main sports interest today is the NFL, not horse racing. But since NFL gambling isn’t legal in New York, and I want to get back in the habit of writing something every week for the blog, I am going to turn my attention to Aqueduct. It’s possible I may put up some thoughts on a couple of Gulfstream races as well, but I’m going to play that by ear. For the record, I like the Pats and the Ravens in the football, any way you feel like betting them, really, if you happen to live in a place civilized enough to allow you to do so at all.

Let’s have a look at the Ruthless, a 6 furlong race for 3 year old fillies on — what else — the inner dirt.

#1 DOUBLE THE ENERGY is an out-of-towner and I’m tempted to joke that she’ll have to double the speed figure to make an impact. In her favor is the rail and her tactical foot. Those things make me hold the line at 20-1, but do note there is a ton of other speed here.

#2 LOVE CONTRACT, like her rival to the inside, is another out of towner with early speed who doesn’t appear fast enough despite a strong record. Since she’s drawn outider of DTE, I’ll push her out to 50-1.

#3 DEFY GRAVITY has some races that are fast enough to win this but she sends off mixed signals. On the plus side, they thought enough of her to try the Matron, and maybe you can excuse the slop effort last time. But the fast win two back was kind of a perfect trip and this is a tougher group. Tricky call but my sense is to make her 8-1, as we know she can win from off the pace.

#4 CUTE CADET looks hopeless, even though I love the owner’s nom de course (El Coqui stable); I’m a big Puerto Rican tree frog guy. 100-1.

On its face, #5 AGAVE KISS’s debut stamped her as a potential filly to be reckoned with. Plus, you ahve to love any equine named after a cocktail. Taking a more cynical view of her cherry popper though, she did walk on the lead against statebreds. Last time was much more impressive from a Flow perspective, but the figure came back lousy. And there’s the speed to her inside and class hike to deal with. I couldn’t have her anywhere near the ML of 5/2. From a value perspective, she’s a contender, but more like 6s.

How much did the rail help #6 DANCE TO BRISTOL last time? Tricky to tell, but it sure didn’t hurt. She’s run three in a row that stack up well with these, and she has passed horses to run well before, so maybe she’ll be able to rate off the other speed. She’s in the mix as well but a little unexciting to me. 8-1.

#7 BETTER LUCKY beat a short field in merely OK time in the slop under a perfect ride by R-r-r-r-r-ramon (who lands elsewhere) in her only race. The ability to pass horses is a plus but it’s possible she was flattered by dynamics and improvement is required. 12-1.

#8 CONDEROSA is another one number Flow downgrade, but at least her figure was strong and earned on a fast surface. Still, it’s quite possible that the pace dynamics and bias that day were the keys to her victory. I’d like to see more and will make her 10-1 accordingly, but a big race wouldn’t surprise me at all and if she’s that price, I’m likely to bet.

#9 WELL KEPT is more speeed and another who Ramon gets off. Hard to know how good she is as she’s caught off tracks in her last three. I don’t know what to make of her to be honest but I’m going to trust that Ramon and his agent made the right call here and hang up a tepid 6-1. That said, usuable if the crowd ignores.

Ramon endes up on another seeming speedster, #10 PERENNIAL SONG. From a FLow perspective, her last was nothing short of awesome. It was only a five horse field but she’d have been justified in getting hammered with the closer-favoring flow there and yet she only lost by 2.5 (she was also wheeling back in 12 days if you want to give her extra credit for that). Plus, it was a G3. She has passed horses before and the outside draw gives Ramon options. I make her the most likely winner at 3-1.

CONCLUSION: It’s hard to know where the crowd is going to go here, they may well end up on my most likely winner, PERENNIAL SONG, and that could make this a pass race. Hopefully the morning line is right and Agave Kiss gets overbet; that could make this a playable race for me. For exotics, I like CONDEROSA a bit and don’t have a strong opinion beyond that but will just look to use anything that’s value on my line with Perennial Song, or perhaps do a win saver.

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SATURDAY: You’re My Hierro

Before 9am this morning, I managed to unravel one of THE major Rolling Stones mysteries. . .who REALLY played at that first gig? To get the answer, you’ll have to BUY THE BOOK in a few months’ time, but I can’t get over that this is what passes for “work” around here of late.

I’m not going to do a full on preview of the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita, but I will offer up a tip. Or really a tip/antitip combo. Some of the blog readers will recall me pacing around the Paddock Bar this past August, waiting to watch HIERRO in his debut on September 3d. I was very impressed with him physically in the paddock and made a good-sized bet. He ran pretty well in there all things considered, and just seeemed like a horse who was crying out for two turns and wasn’t fast or precocious enough to win first out.

Second time out he once again made a visually nice move, perhaps a hair wide and early, and he once again came up short going shorter than he wants (7 panels). That form looks OK as the winner came back to run to 2d in the Remsen.

Last time, he smashed up a field at Churchill by 5, again at 7, and the form looks OK. Second place finisher Sir Bond dissappointed last night as an even money shot at Fair Grounds last night, but ran the same fig again. And several others in there have validated their figures as well. But the key point for me is that I look for Hierro to get better as he goes longer, based on how he looks and runs, so I think he should run a big race, even though on figs alone it’s hard to separate him from Out of Bounds and Handsome Mike, and he appears behind Secret Circle.

And that brings us to today’s anti-tip. Secret Circle is a theoretical flow move up out of the BC Juvenile Sprint but he just looks trappy to me. He seems sure to be odds-on and yet his figure edge isn’t THAT great, especially considering that it was earned doing something that has little to do with today’s circumstances. I know he had reason to be tired last time, but his stretch run looked awful, like he was looking for a place to lie down. Not exactly the kind of finish that portends improvement going farther.

Blinkers off might help (Baffert 8 for 18, $3.36 ROI the last five years when he goes sprint to route, blinks off), lone speed should definitely help, but I am still just not scared of Secret Circle. And even if he wins, I won’t mind too much because we can bet against him again next time. Presumably he’ll be shipped out of town, hopefully to try 9 furlongs, which I’m not sure he’ll get with the aid of a flat bed truck.

I think what’s really holding me back here is the way the trainer speaks about him. Bob Baffert has a lot in common with Rex Ryan. I’m not saying he’s as braggodocious as the Jets head coach, but there is no denying that the man likes to talk. And yet, Secret Circle has been very much under the radar his whole career. Something has held Baffert back from the aggressive spotting and accompanying verbiage that are typically part of his program. I don’t know why that is, but I find it notable. Even before this race, his quote to Steve Andersen in the DRF was “It will be interesting. I think the jury is still out on the two turns.” (well, they had him saying “turn turns” but I’m pretty sure that was a typo.) If Rex Ryan started talking about how much he admired Bill Belichick the week before a game, I’d bet the Pats. And I won’t be betting Secret Circle.

Well, there you have it. Godspeed out there today. . .

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Hello 2012, It’s Nice to Meet You

First off, sorry everybody for bailing on you like that. Won’t happen again. I kept thinking that this December would be different, and that I’d be motivated to preview some races at Gulfstream, or do something for SANTA opening day, or at least write a little something about that amazing King George. . .but it just didn’t happen.

I am still in the early stages of figuring out how/where I’ll be covering the USA Triple Crown races this year and what happens with that will greatly influence my overall blogging schedule for the next few months. But I am ready to commit to doing at least one race preview a week, starting this upcoming weekend, where presumably I’ll write something about the Sham stakes.

The holidays were pretty excellent for us, we were up in the North Country. Took a lot of nice walks in New Hampshire and Maine, highlighted by Mugs accidentally flushing a Barred Owl. Susan got me a fantastic looking cooking class at the French Culinary Institute which I am all pumped up about. I got her a class at the fantastic Gotham Writers’ Workshop . . .the family that learns together. . .

Work-wise, the guys and I are working away on our new book about the Rolling Stones 50th Anniversary. Pretty amusing when one’s work day consists of transcribing an interview with Keith Richards. There are worse lines of work.

Anyway, that’s where I am. Apologies again about the disappearing act. You can count on me showing up at least once a week from here on in, Friday afternoon or Saturday morning usually, and I hope to be around a lot more than that.

Until next time, please remember, never bet the road favorite in the second night of a back to back.

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Saturday’s races at AQU and CD

Unfortunately, I came down with a little bug during the Thanksgiving festivities so my energy level is not up to doing proper previews of any of the big races around the country today. Instead, I’ll just offer a line or two with some picks, sans any real analysis.

AQUEDUCT:

Race 5: I liked the obvious ones here, especially COMMON BOND. I had a note from the debut that this brother of To Honor and Serve was a good-looking type who’d need more ground to show his best. VENTURA BAR has the best form and figs and is a Flow Move-Up coming out of the last.

Demoniselle, Race 6: I have to go with the chalk here. As you might recall from Saratoga, I was very excited to bet back DISPOSABLE PLEASURE after the horror trip in the debut. Unfortunately, she came back favored at Monmouth, moved too early, and got beat. We got a hint of her real ability at Belmont in her third start, and I don’t think she needs the lead so much as she was just faster than those. Looks to me like she’ll stay the 9F and should get a good tactical or frontrunning trip. INDINIABLE ought to be better going long on dirt, she’s the other for me.

Remsen, Race 7: A tricky race. I might try EL PADRINO off the Flow Move-Up last time in the slop. I don’t think he needs the lead based on his SAR race. I’m not interested in too short a number though, he has a lot to prove. STEPHANOATSEE could take another step up in the third race of his life going farther.

Cigar, Race 8: I like SANGAREE, who seems to have found his calling at age 6 (no idea why it took so long for him to run on proper dirt). TO HONOR AND SERVE the other for me.

Gazelle, Race 9: SAVVY SUPREME and AWESOME FEATHER look like the ones.

CHURCHILL DOWNS

Race 9, Golden Rod: I like GLINDA THE GOOD on the idea that she made the early move into a fast pace that helped cause the pace collapse. I might try CUSTOMER BASE if a decent price.

Race 11, KY JC: Both EVER SO LUCKY and CYBER SECRET look likely to step forward in there second career starts. The former was incredibly impressive visually in the debut and the form of the latter’s race is working out great.

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More of My Interview With Chad Harbach, the Author of The Art of Fielding

For Part One of my interview, over on SBNation, click here and for Part Two, click here.

Many have speculated that you named your character Owen after the title character from John Irving’s A Prayer for Owen Meany. But I’m guessing that would have been too on the nose for you. Am I right or am I crazy?

It’s a total coincidence, and, in fact, if I had ever read A Prayer For Owen Meany when I started the novel, I probably wouldn’t have named him Owen. I think Owen just came up as a name for the character out of the blue. And at some point during the ten years I worked on the book, farther down the line, that I found out A Prayer For Owen Meany begins the way it does and I didn’t question it too much. Then a lot of people have also compared my prose and general style to John Irving, which came as a surprise to me because I had never read John Irving until recently.

Talk to me about the role that Moby Dick played in the writing of The Art of Fielding? Did you look at it as a model in any way?

It’s not a shadow in any type of plot way, the way that some novels are. For one thing, it was just fun to play around with. The conceit that there is this school that’s not on the ocean but is on Lake Michigan and they have adopted Melville and all of this Melvellian imagery to their school. There is a fair amount of dramatic correspondence and I think that felt natural for this book because when I started thinking about what a baseball team is and does, it’s this group of guys who spend an awful lot of time in close quarters, guys who have a certain amount in common but in other ways are just sort of thrust together, and they have to spend an inordinate amount of time together in pursuit of a fairly esoteric goal. And that describes the whale ship of Moby Dick pretty perfectly. My book is about the way that guys relate to each other, in terms of affection and competition and antagonism, I think I was looking to Moby Dick as a model in that respect.

Talk to me about the role that sports plays in our modern culture.

Sports are so central to our culture that it becomes hard to describe the role they play. And while there’s an awful lot of sports writing, whether in novels or in essays, I think there’s not that much writing that tries to think through, in a serious way, what that role is. Right there in the title of my book, you can see the way that I think of sports, as a form of art. And as professional sports have gotten so much more popular over the past few decades I feel that in a certain way, they’ve usurped a certain cultural role that used to be for other arts, which is not entirely healthy. I wish that playwrights and opera singers and poets were as famous and prominent and well-respected as athletes are.

It seems to me there is a juxtaposition in the novel between the modernist/postmodernist ideas and themes you’re working with, but then you also have a central plot that would have been very much at home in a traditional/romantic novel. Was that a conscious decision you made?

I don’t think you can or should have any thoughts like that when you’re actually writing a novel. But I’m steeped as a reader in both the 19th century novel and the novels of modernism and postmodernism. And whenever I sit down to write, I’m doing so having ingested those. Moby Dick is an interesting novel to discuss in this regard. You can make a strong case that Moby Dick, although it was written in 1851 is a really modernist/postmodernist novel. It’ really playful and exuberant and formally strange and very much concerned with what replaces religion or old codes that were supposedly what’s at the center of people’s lives.

At a certain point in the process I realized that what I was writing was a modern 19th century novel, if that makes any sense. In some ways, our lives are very, very different from the 19th century, and our works of fiction are very, very different. On the other hand, things don’t change that quickly, and I think we retain an awful lot of the same ideas about human nature that people had in the 1850s, but then we’ve been through 160 years of history and literary history in between so we bring something different to it.

You offer a beautiful paragraph in the book describing the human condition, and the ostensibly contradictory role that sports and art both play in it. These are activities that are seemingly pointless but in the end offer nothing short of the possibility of discovering the meaning of life. Talk to me more about that paradox.

It’s tricky stuff to talk about, and it’s tricky as a writer or artist sometimes to justify what you do. We’re very accustomed as a society to engage everything in terms of its overall profitability, and we tend to boil everything down to a small number of possible values. But, of course, that’s incredibly narrow and cuts off all sorts of things that have value in the world. I see something like baseball or writing in the same way in that part of the point of what you’re doing is that there is no point. And you can derive a lot of meaning from those activities that isn’t economic meaning. Of course, this gets very complicated because the best baseball players play for money and the best writers write for money. But the point of baseball and the point of novels are both elusive, and the feelings and meanings are elusive and hard to describe. It’s hard enough to put words to them, much less a dollar sign.


Isn’t part of the point self-expression?

Yes, though I worry about that term because there are all sorts of uninteresting forms of self-expression. But for Henry on the field, the way that he plays shortstop is his highest and best and most natural and concentrated form of self-expression.

Last question. How do you interpret the ending of the book?

I think that at the very end of the characters find themselves in very much the same place where they started, but a lot of has happened in between. There are a few simple basic, self- directed aspects of your life that you can control, and whatever else you’re going to do has to be built on that foundation.

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RIVER CITY Preview

It was a fairly quiet week around here, mostly just working away on the new book project, which is one I’m working on with my dad and Bernie Corbett about the 50th Anniversary of the Rolling Stones for Bloomsbury. We have a lot of cool, new research and it should be a winner. Also dealing with the ill-timed death of our old boiler. . .two weeks out of warranty. . .so that’s been a hassle but nothing I can’t handle.

Today I want to take a quick look at the River City from Churchill Downs, if only to keep in the habit of posting something on the blog at least once a week over the winter. . .so away we go. . .

#1 PLUTOMIUM appeared to move up big time in the slop last time and he also benefitted from a track that was playing kindly to speed. His turf races still place him on the periphery of contention and he is well drawn but overall, I am not excited.

#2 CHEROKEE LORD is awfully interesting. That was a nice win last time and I liked that he showed a new dimension — actually passing horses. It’s conceivable he could regresss a bit off that effort but he has other big races to run back to as well, and the dirt race two back is just a total toss. 6-1.

I’m a big fan of Michael Stidham, who trains #3 GLEAM OF HOPE, and his last three races would put him in the mix. He’s in the third race of his form cycle and ought to appreciate the added distance. 5-1.

I thought #4 BERGERAC was fortunate to win at Saratoga on a day when the turf was playing favorably to frontrunners. But he’s backed that effort up in his two subsequent starts, and will try to navigate an extra 1/16th today. Another who could lay claims but doesn’t excite me. 10-1.

I didn’t come up with #5 ZIMMER, whose previous turf form puts him a few lengths ebhind the best of these. He can’t be completely ruled out, however. 25-1.

#6 BLUES STREET looks a syandout on figures but before you go crazy taking a short price, look a bit closer. He’s been carefully spotted and he’s second time Pletcher off, back kind of quick for his new barn. Nothing against Eddie Keneally but it seems plausible that he might not know this guy as well as Pletcher did and this 7 year old could regress to the moon, if you get my double meaning. He is still a likely winner, though, if you believe in speed figures at all. 3/1.

#7 ALLIE’S EVENT has a wiseguy look, with plenty of races on wax and turf that are fast enough to win this by my reckoning. I love the fat morning line, and the big run in this race last year, where he may have moved prematurely. 4-1.

#8 TAJAWEED is another obvious contender, who like Blues Street, doesn’t have to win. His form and figures on their face would make him about 7/2 but I sense a big chance he’ll regress/be over-the-top at this time in the season.

CONCLUSION: An interesting race where I respect the faves but will likely try and beat them. Preference lies with ALLIE’S EVENT and GLEAM OF HOPE, though I might save with Cherokee Lord, Blues Street and Tajaaweed in exactas, depending on the prices.

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