It pays to not be too literal about speed figures at this stage in this season with 3-year olds and with that in mind, let’s take a quick look at the Hutch, the likely subject of episode 2 in the TC Vidcast Series. . .

#1 TARPY’S GOAL looks a little one-paced for a sprinter to me, and also more exposed than his rivals here. Not out of it but an underlay at the ML in my book. 12-1.

#2 WILDCAT CREEK has it all to find on figures and class. 25-1.

#3 THUNDER MOCCASIN impressed mightily in the debut, though it must be pointed out that the early pace and track bias suited him. Still, a deserving favorite based on that effort, but likely to be overbet. 3/2.

#4 QUICK WIT is probably not fast enough but he has a couple of things going for him. I think he might have the best late kick of this bunch, and while that rarely matters on dirt, this could be the kind of spot where it does. I expect a good ride from Ramon to get on the board. 8-1.

#5 IL VILLANO will be a fashionable pick in some circles based on some back numbers and a return to sprinting. I am a bit skeptical, however, as the wins/good figs have been earmed on the engine against weaker. A contender, still. 5-1.

Perhaps a stake in his second start was just too much too soon for #6 EVER SO LUCKY, who was the talk of the backstretch before his visually stunning debut. This has been the plan for awhile and the Master has speculated in interviews that he might be more of a miler type than a TC prospect in the end. That said, the screws won’t be tight and the rep has exceeded the figs to this point meaning he’ll be an underlay at the ML but he still vibes to be a serious horse. 7/2.

CONCLUSION: Looks pass-y. But I could find a bet on my line or might mess around in a small trifecta 3-5-6/3-5-6/4.

After living a full life, Tom Brady passed away. When he went to seek his heavenly reward, God took him on a tour. They came to a modest little house with a faded Patriots flag in the window.

“This house is yours for eternity, Tom,” said God. “This is a very special honor; not everyone gets a house up here.”

Tom felt very special indeed, and walked up to his front door. On his way up the porch, he noticed another house just around the corner. It was a huge 3-story mansion painted white, blue and red, with a 50-foot tall flagpole with an enormous New York Giants flag waving.

As he looked closer, he noticed a swimming pool in the shape of the state of New York, a Giants logo in every window, and a brand spanking new #10 Eli Manning jersey on the front door.

Tom looked over at God and said “God, all due respect, but I have a question. I was an all-pro QB, I won three Super Bowls, and I went to the Hall of Fame on the first ballot. Even the football stat geeks loved me.”

God said, “So what’s your point Tom?”

“Well, why does Eli Manning get a better house than me?”

God just laughed.

“Tom, that’s not Eli’s house. It’s mine.”

#1 HAKAMA is on the improve and is from a barn I love. I’d like more if the win from two back wasn’t earned over a biased strip. He’ll have to improve again, though that’s not out of the question. A possible wiseguy play against Alpha. 6-1.

I’ve never been a big fan of #2 SPEIGHTSCITY, tricky to start now. 50-1.

#3 SWAG DADDY looks a hair too slow and then there’s my prejudice against New York-breds. 20-1.

#4 KING KID has a chance to step up in the third start of his life. The needed improvement isn’t out of the question. 6-1.

My favorite thing about #5 HOW DO I WIN is that this is the horse that Todd Pletcher was quoted in the New York Times as telling owner Mike Repole, “He’s not good enough.” He’s improved since then but I’m guessing not enough. 15-1

#6 TIGER WALK could get a visit from the regression fairy but that said, if he runs that last race, he’ll be right there. And optimists can say the improvement was real and due to the surface switch. Another contender at 5-1.

#7 ALPHA is your obvious favorite and that status is warranted. I had a note before his first ever race that he didn’t look fully fit and should improve, and it looks like he has. My issues are only my own lack of ability to make money when betting this barn (nothing against him, we’re just not simpatico), and the expected price. 7/5 and you woin’t see that.

CONCLUSION: Probably it’s a watch race, but maybe take a shot if Hakama, King Kid or Tiger Walk are overlays by betting them to win and/or hooking up in exactas with the obvious Alpha.

Based on some Twitter chatter from earlier this week, I wanted to write a bit more (OK, much more) about my thoughts on Exchange Betting, which just might be coming soon to a USA racetrack near you. The basic concept of Exchange Betting is that it is a peer-to-peer transaction conducted via a website, with a company (say, Betfair), acting as a middleman. This means you can bet on horses to win, and also bet on them to lose (more on this later).

Betfair take a commission on every winning bet, you are not betting against them, you are betting against another specific person. It’s like any other computerized trading operation in this way. In the current USA system, you are betting against all the other bettors, and the track takes a usurious cut of the whole pool and return the remaining money to the winners based on the odds. This means you don’t get the price when you bet, you get the price at the off (or later, but that’s another story).

What are the advantages?

There are two obvious and massive advantages that Exchange betting offer bettors in the USA. The first is fixed odds. What a joke it is in this country that you don’t know what odds you are getting until the race is already underway. It’s a system that disincentivizes learning to handicap properly. How can you ask people to have a true sense of value and implied probability — the core of what a winning player needs — when you don’t even know your price? You can’t.

The other key thing is that — presumably — exchanges will offer the bettors a better alternative to the current takeout. If they can get the commission to 10%, that should represent enough of a bite for the tracks and still enough of an improvement to bettors to keep them flusher longer. Every economic study I’ve ever seen says that lower takeout ultimately leads to better numbers for the tracks in the long run (those last four words being the key). Perhaps the exchanges are what we need to get the lower takeout in.

Another possible advantage is the advent of in-running betting on horse racing in the USA, but that will be the subject of another post if people end up being interested in this one.

What are the concerns?

There is a line of thinking that the ability to bet on a horse to win will increase cheating. I believe these concerns to be overblown and even a little naive. For one thing, cheaters betting against horses on the exchange will leave footprints now. There are several well-publicized incidents of Betfair pointing out unusual betting action in races and launching investigations. I think the current system of exotic betting already offers a better opportunity for larceny that is nearly impossible to trace. I have interviewed and spent time with a lot of professional players. There are guys out there who if you told them with certainty that the favorite wasn’t going to hit the board in a given race would need extra rooms in their houses to accommodate all the money.

Could someone who is not greedy try to maniupulate the system to his advantage and avoid getting caught? I suppose so, but that’s already the case now with exotic betting if you think about it for a second. The perceived risks of further cheating don’t warrant cutting off this potentially excellent growth opportunity.

Financial issues

I have read some handwringing pieces about the financial side of Exchanges. A lot of people are upset because they believe that the exchanges don’t do enough to put money back in the sport in the UK, and they worry that might be the case here as well. I don’t think this is a realistic concern. The UK model is completely different. The racing industry there as a whole doesn’t get enough money from gambling dollars, and the exchanges are no different.

The deal our horsemen will be cutting with Betfair is a different animal: the commision will be higher than what they have in the UK, and the horsemen will get more. I am imagining a world in which Betfair will also have to pay-to-play, guaranteeing horsemen a certain amount of profit. If the horsemen are smart, they’ll set up Exchange betting on a trial basis — say for six months for starters — where they know they’ll make X going in. This will protect the tracks from the Law of Unintended Consequences and offer valuable further information and how the financial side is going to shake out. I just don’t see how this arrangement won’t benefit one and all.

But will it work here?

I have no idea. I do know that I have friends younger than me in the UK who support themselves full-time by playing the horses. There are few — if any — such people younger than me in the USA (I’m about to be 40 this Saratoga. Party at the Paddock Bar!!).

We have a culture of exotic betting in the USA and I’d argue that it’s grown precisely because it’s so hard for the average person to win now. Exotics increase fluctuation in results and allow some lucky people to do quite well, even over a number of years. But unless you can teach new people to win and continue funneling money back into the game, the overall game suffers. Why not try a system that teaches better handicapping and offers a healthier economic model? And one that ought to appeal to the erstwhile online poker crowd as well.

It might take time to work, but I believe the advantages are such that we at least have to try. Exchanges, coupled with the right economic structure for the tracks, could be racing’s most important growth area for this century.

I’ll be back tomorrow with a look at one of this weekend’s TC prep races, probably the Withers. I am happy to discuss this isssue further with any interested parties in the comments. And if the USA Horsemen or Betfair want to hire me a consulatant, my schedule frees up about March 1 when the Stones book is due

Despite the middling result, I had a pleasing evening. On my friend Dempsey’s suggestion, we checked out the Brooklyn Edible Social Club.. Wow, was it good and fun. A communal dinner party with delicious food prepared in the exact style I like — ingredient-driven goodness. As my new friend, Rodney, said, “it’s one of the best kept secrets in Brooklyn.” In particular, this would be a really fun thing for any of my English readers (you know who you are) to check on on their next trips to New York.

OK, let’s do a quickfire Holy Bull preview:

The note on #1 SILVER MAX from his debut reads, “wait for turf.” That note appears to be right as he’s done some nice work on the green (or in the case of the GP turf course, green and brown). Not really seeing why he’s going to take a G3 back on dirt. 50-1.

#2 CONSORTIUM looks awfully strong. Two fast races, backed up by advanced figs, and the last is probably a hair better than it looks as it was earned up near the lead on a strip that was favoring closers. This may have given today’s rival, Algorithms, an advantage. I make him 3/1.

#3 MY ADONIS does not look fast enough to make an impact here, though he does make me think of Adrian Adonis, so that’s worth something. 30-1.

Your favorite is #4 HANSEN, who set fast splits on a track that was not favoring speed to hold off Union Rags in the BC Juvy. From a trip point of view, UR had a tough go of it there, but it’s certainly notable that it’s this guy, not UR, who comes out the upgrade just looking at the Racing Flow data. Lovely gray blur might have to work harder than usual to make the top here — everyone and his brother could see he was loose as a goose last time. His class and figure edge make his candicacy for favoritism legit, but he’s no cinch. The ML has it about right from a value perspective. 6/5. It will be fun to see if he’s trained on.

#5 FORT LOUDON actually ran OK in the Juvy given the ground he lost and his overall trip. He was probably more like 4-6 lengths worse than Hansen as opposed to the 9 that a lietral interpretation of the form suggests. Still, that’s a lot to find, and he is kind of exposed based on the rest of his form. My choice for 4th. 30-1.

#6 ALGORITHMS will be a wiseguy selection in some corners and it’s easy to see why based on that last run. But there is this idea that he had an easier time than Consortium based on how the track was playing, and it’s notable that it was the latter, not the former, who was made 4/5 in there. He certainly has every chance, I just think it’s likely he won’t be value. Playable at the right number. 3-1.

CONCLUSION: It’s probably a pass race. If I were making “newspaper” style picks, I think I’d go 1) Hansen 2) Consortium 3) Algorithms. Nothing against Kiaran McLaughlin at all, I’ve just noticed that I’m not particularly simpatico with his barn in my handicapping, so I try to regress all my opinions on his runners to the mean. That said, I could bet Consortium if he goes off longer than my line, at least in exactas with Hansen. A very interesting race to watch, at the least.

Lots of good stuff on both coasts Saturday, and no American Football distractions this week. That means for the first weekend of the year, I’m actually going to do some work on more than just a couple of races. I thought for today I’d just go with a random assortment of racing thoughts, and then some time before Sunday afternoonI’ll be back with a more proper preview of The Holy Bull, a race that I believe will feature the return of Hansen (the horse, not the band). And no, there’s no truth to the rumor that I’m entering the Sunshine Millions Bikini Contest.

Race 1: I don’t know what happened to #7 EXETER ROAD last time, but if his price is OK, I may be willing to fogive the effort. He was back in three weeks and that was his first race in FLorida and perhaps he just needed some time to rest/acclimate? I’ve got two of his prior runs as Flow upgrades and he’s fast enough on advanced figures to beat these.

Race 4: #5 STARFORMER was a horse to watch and then a bankroll play for me at Saratoga. I thought she was compromised by a course that was playing to speed and the raceflow in the Riskaverse. I wish this were longer but I believe she can win at a mileI’m wary of taking too short a number, not like she has a big fig edge or class edge, but she’s one I might bet. The other in here I’m intrigued by is #8 SHARNBERRY, who has European form good enough to win this and will handle the distance, no problem. Depending on prices, I might double win bet those two and also play an exacta, and maybe a 5 8/ALL/5 8 tri.

Race 8: #5 ROMACACA might be the most likely winner off her form, figures and consistency. #7 TRIP FOR A.J. is also awfully consistent and may have found the punch she needed in the lane last time with a more favorable flow. She has been handled twice by the top pick though. I’ve always liked #4 UNBRIDLED HUMOR, who helped make Labor Day Weekend 2010 a profitable one, but I don’t think I can get too excited about betting her as the favorite in what looks an open race. I could save with her though, if circumstances allow.

Race 9: Looks to me to be a two horse affair between #5 LITTLE MIKE, who appears to have a pace advantage, and #3 BAD DEBT. The latter chased a loose leader last time, seems to always fire, and could be a hair overpriced. #1 SLEW’S ANSWER is one I’ll watch closely as I’m curious how he’ll stack up against this salty crew. Usable at a price. The value in the race could come from beating Teaks North if they come for him. He has a tricky post and I’m not sure he’ll be able to recapture that good form of last summer, though they are likely to bet him like he will.

Race 10: This is a super cool, competitive race that’s tricky to handicap. There appears to be an abundance of speed and I think #3 ADIOS CHARLIE could get a perfect stalking trip. Loved his comebacker. Only question is I’m not sure he really wants 9 furlongs at a testing gallop (didn’t like how he finished up in the Peter Pan, did a video on it here). Still, at 2-1 or higher, I might nibble. If I think I can get around evens the place, I might do that instead.

As I write this interview up, I have a big old Mason jar full of the makings of Apple Bitters hanging out in my pantry. This is Brad Thomas Parsons’ fault. His new book, Bitters: A Spirited History of a Classic Cure-All, with Cocktails, Recipes, and Formulas is part cocktail history book, part catalogue of what bitters are available, and part DIY for actual bitters making at home. If you have any interest in making cocktails at all, you should own it. It’s the rare cocktail book that I think will appeal to the casual drinker and experienced mixologist (more on that term in a minute), alike.

Brad was kind of enough to sit down with me the other night at Char No. 4, where we drank rye bucks and talked about his influences, bar linguistics, and the power of positive drinking.

Have you been watching Portlandia this season? Specifically the lampooning of homemade bitters?

I watched the first season and had seen online that they were taking on mixology. And I had just been to Portland on my book tour and I went to Clyde Common and I met Jeffrey Morganthaler, who is the guy who brought us barrel aging cocktails and things like that. You could guess which direction they were going to go with it. And the next morning on Facebook, my editor joked with me, “I think you might be responsible for this. The first bitters joke in pop culture.”

You know have you have arrived when you’re being mocked on Portlandia.

Exactly. It was funny. And I liked all the other ingredients mentioned in there like rotten bananas. But I really appreciated the pause after he mentioned bitters. . . “I made them at home.” It was really fun. And spot on, for sure.

What are your favorite bitters?

Whether you’re just getting into bitters are are running a professional bar, I think it’s essential to have Angostura, Peychaud’s, and an orange bitters on hand. These are the holy trinity of bitters and offer a springboard to kicking up so many different cocktails. If you’re looking to branch out into new flavors beyond that, I would recommend adding a chocolate mole bitters and a grapefruit bitters to your line-up. Bittermens out of Brooklyn make two of the best out out there with their Xocolate Mole bitters and Hopped Grapefruit bitters. My most-reached for bitters at home is Fee Brothers Whiskey Barrel-Aged bitters. It’s a limited-edition run of their aromatic bitters that’s aged in Tennessee whiskey barrels and it has a really pronounced cinnamon candy snap to it that I just love in bourbon drinks. Scrappy’s Cardamom bitters out of Seattle, is just terrific and I’ve been hooked on Brooklyn Hemispherical Bitters Black Mission Fig bitters. I brought dozens of bitters with me on the road during the book tour for people to sample and the Black Mission Fig and a Roasted Macadamia bitters from Zach Feldman’s Bitters Old Men were two of the crowd favorites.

Have you gotten any odd reactions from people when they learn you make your own bitters?

I’m moving and my place now is on the market and there have been open houses. And I’d have to leave for those but there’d still be this wall full of various jars and vessels. And one of the people said to the realtor, “Whoever lives here, I think you better call homeland security.”

A lot of mysterious potions! Let’s talk for a second about the term mixology. I know I’ve always had mixed feelings about it. On one hand, I like that it suggests a level of import and craft goes into making drinks and tending bar. But on the other end, well, it’s kind of pretentious. Where do you stand with it?

I call myself an enthusiast. I had limited time, like four years, behind a bar in college. I frequent bars and restaurants on a regular basis but because I don’t do time behind the stick, as they say, I don’t feel strongly either way about the usage. Depending on the context, I will sometimes throw it out there but I think generally people in the profession prefer bartender because the word mixologist can sound affected or pretentious. We tried in the book to have different kinds of bartenders. I didn’t want it to be all old-timey and arm garters. There’s definitely a lot going on with the term mixology that is valid. Taking cues from the kitchen, taking cues from history, the idea of bartending as the craft it was before prohibition. It was a respected trade: butcher, baker, bartender.

Of the classic cocktails in the book, what is your favorite to underline what bitters can bring to the party?

I have a section in the book called Bitters Hall of Fame, the four drinks that have historically kept bitters alive. For me, my favorite is the Old Fashioned, the classic version where it’s rye or bourbon, bitters, a little rich syrup, and a thick lemon peel. There’s also that muddled fruit version, associated with the 50s through the 70s, where it’s a big orange peel and a bright maraschino cherry, sugar. Sometimes I do like going with the fruit one because the granualated sugar gets in your teeth a little bit and it’s much sweeter and it reminds me of the drinks I used to steal sips of from my dad. But in terms of pure flavor and historical significance, I like the original Old Fashioned because it’s a template and you can take it in so many directions, mix up your spirit, mix up your syrup, mix up your bitters.

How about the newer cocktails in the book. Which is your favorite?

I’m definitely a bourbon and rye guy. I gravitate to those. And of the new look drinks, some of those are mine, some of those are from other bartenders, and the breakout drink among those has been the Autumn Sweater, which is a little bit on the sweet side but it’s rye, Amaro Nonino, Averna, with maple bitters and orange bitters. And it’s served with a big rock or a big sphere (of ice) and it’s named after the Yo La Tengo song. It’s supposed to be this bittsweet, change of season drink, and that one’s really caught on. I was fortunate enough to have a couple of bars put it on their menu. At my book party at Prime Meats, we turned it into a punch.

You mentioned your dad before. I have to say, I love the dedication photo of him in the book. Tell me more about him and his influence on you and the book.

He was a spiritual guide for sure. He passed away in 2008. He was a huge influence on me and remains a huge influence. He was an airline mechanic for pretty much his whole life. He went to the Navy and then he was with Allegheny Airlines and eventually wound up with US Air. He worked the night shift. After my folks got divorced, it wasn’t until I got into my own as a teenager where he and I bonded a lot, especially post college. I stayed with him during the summers and spent a lot of time with him. He belonged to a social club and he had a couple of taverns he liked going to. I’m a big fan of going out, dining at the bar. I don’t need to have a group of people with me to have a good time. He taught me how to respect the convivality and ritual of things, of going into bars. He was a guy’s guy, quiet, knew how to observe things, helluva sense of humor. At a certain point, he stopped drinking spirits, but I have a lot of his cocktail gear from when he and my mom would have cocktail parties in the 70s, shakers, ice picks. Those mean a lot to me. I wish he was here to see the achievement of the book. That would have meant a lot to him. He was a great guy.

BOOK EXCERPT
Reprinted with permission from Bitters: A Spirited History of a Classic Cure-All, with Cocktails, Recipes, and Formulas by Brad Thomas Parsons, copyright © 2011. Published by Ten Speed Press, a division of Random House, Inc.

The Autumn Sweater

We could slip away
Wouldn’t that be better?

The bittersweet lyrics of “Autumn Sweater,” from Yo La Tengo’s 1997 album, I Can Hear the Heart Beating As One, serve as the source material for this melancholy change-of-season shoegazer. Serve it over a large block of ice, or over an ice sphere–even better to evoke a fat harvest moon hanging in the nighttime sky.

Made in Sicily since 1868, Averna is a syrupy, bitter herbal liqueur. It isn’t overpowering, though, and is a great gateway amaro if you’re interested in exploring potable bitters. Amaro Nonino is another mild Italian digestif whose caramel color and warm, spicy burnt orange notes round out the full fall flavors here. Wrap yourself in an Autumn Sweater and embrace what the season has in store for you.

Makes 1 drink
1 ounce rye
1/2 ounce Averna
1/2 ounce Amaro Nonino
1/2 ounce maple syrup
1 dash Urban Moonshine maple bitters
1 dash orange bitters
Garnish: thick clove-studded strip of orange zest

Combine all the ingredients except the garnish in a mixing glass filled with ice and stir until chilled. Add a large sphere of ice to a chilled double old-fashioned and strain the drink into the glass.

For the garnish, use a paring knife to slice a thick strip of zest from an orange. Twist it over the drink to release the essential oils and rub along the rim of the glass. Stud the orange zest with two whole cloves and drape it over the ice sphere.

I haven’t been back down to New Orleans in several years, but I really dug Fair Grounds, where I had some of the best racetrack food I’ve eaten, particularly the red beans and rice with andouille. I don’t remember too much else about the trip other than it was pre-Katrina, we were there for my man Hal’s bachelor party, and whatever you do, you don’t want to end up going drink for drink with the guys from Michigan Blacksnake. Oh, one other thing: we went to a game at the local arena to see the Hornets play the Cavs because they had a kid named Lebron James who was supposed to be OK. Whatever happened to him?

Anyway. . .

I’m not gonna spend much time on the Dorochenko entry, #1 ADENA’S CHANCE and #1A HERO OF ORDER (drawn post 10). Hero’s last race was probably bias-aided and neither has form or figs to make them any less than 50-1.

Like Blake Griffin, #3 TED’S FOLLY is an Oklahoma-bred, but unlike my favorite Kia spokesperson, Ted is not a superstar. That said, he is super cool. He cost about the same as a meal for two at Per Se and has now won six in a row, doing so n the fashion that gets books written about horses — he’s a stone closer. His last two races do represent a step up on some of the advanced figs I look at, but I still think the seven-peat might be out of reach on the step up in class. I’d love to be wrong and have Steve Haskin’s The Story Of Ted’s Folly hitting the bookshelves about this time next year. 20-1.

#4 MR. BOWLING might be an underlay. He always takes money and might well do so again here. He had a little trouble last time I thought but that’s mitigated by the fact that the race didn’t come back very fast and the form is working out pretty blah. He’s got some talent and you can build a case certainly but the value is just unlikely to be there. 15-1.

Another to bring a win streak to the party is #5 EXFACTOR. The race two back was probably a bit flow-aided but at least the figure was fast. On pedigree, he doesn’t need to stay the mile, but he certainly could, especially at this time of year. He’s a likely winner I’ll price up at 5-1.

The next two gates will be occupied by the Zayat entry, #2 DAN AND SHEILA (what? did he run out of Z names?) and #2B Z DAGER. The latter doesn’t look fast enough but the former could make an impact assuming normal out improvement. I’m going to call the entry 10-1 for right now, knowing that this is a case where the market might be telling us valuable information about how Dan and Sheila’s progress is coming along.

#6 SEVEN LIVELY SINS made a nice impression in the Iroquois and you can probably just draw a line through the Delta Jackpot, where they were probably just trying to squeeze one race too many out of a promising 2 year old campaign. The worktab for the three-year old debut looks excellent to me, especially for a good, conservative trainer like Al Stall. I love that he’s got early foot and while this is no router pedigree, the Iroquois run (with an honest raceflow) suggests the distance will be within his reach. Yes, I see he’s lost ground in the lane every start but there are other factors at work there possibly. I’d bet him at his ML price and will call him 7/2 on my line. That might even be a hair high.

#7 is ALEXANDER THE(not so)GREAT. 100-1.

I thought #8 HAMMERS TERROR might be a turf horse but the run last time and a closer look at the full pedigree (second dam had some dirt pedigree power) suggest otherwise. The figs look good, though perhaps is notable the dirt race was slower than the wax ones. All in all I see an intriguing prospect from an outfit I like and trust. A contender at 6-1.

D Wayne off the plane? Wait, it’s not 1988. Make #9 CHALYBEATE SPRINGS 50-1 and forget what I just said.

#10 CAPETOWN DEVIL is a course and distance winner who has run fast enough to deserve a second look, at the least. I’m a little lukewarm if only because last time was one of those times — not so rare in racing really — where breaking poorly actually probably helped him as the race set up for a closer. 10-1.

#11 SHARED PROPERTY was probably flattered by race flow last time as well, but you don’t have to downgrade him too much off that is it was a Grade 1 and it was wax. His first two races were good enough to make an impact here, one on dirt, one a win in a Grade 3, though again, the latter was flow aided. The post is less than ideal but there’s too much speed and talent here to make any more than 6-1.

CONCLUSION: There are lots of chances here obviously but the lean for now is towards SEVEN LIVELY SINS and HAMMERS TERROR. The specifics of the bet will be determined by their prices and appearances, as well as those of the other logicals, particularly EXFACTOR.

Let’s have a look at the Ruthless, a 6 furlong race for 3 year old fillies on — what else — the inner dirt.

#1 DOUBLE THE ENERGY is an out-of-towner and I’m tempted to joke that she’ll have to double the speed figure to make an impact. In her favor is the rail and her tactical foot. Those things make me hold the line at 20-1, but do note there is a ton of other speed here.

#2 LOVE CONTRACT, like her rival to the inside, is another out of towner with early speed who doesn’t appear fast enough despite a strong record. Since she’s drawn outider of DTE, I’ll push her out to 50-1.

#3 DEFY GRAVITY has some races that are fast enough to win this but she sends off mixed signals. On the plus side, they thought enough of her to try the Matron, and maybe you can excuse the slop effort last time. But the fast win two back was kind of a perfect trip and this is a tougher group. Tricky call but my sense is to make her 8-1, as we know she can win from off the pace.

#4 CUTE CADET looks hopeless, even though I love the owner’s nom de course (El Coqui stable); I’m a big Puerto Rican tree frog guy. 100-1.

On its face, #5 AGAVE KISS’s debut stamped her as a potential filly to be reckoned with. Plus, you ahve to love any equine named after a cocktail. Taking a more cynical view of her cherry popper though, she did walk on the lead against statebreds. Last time was much more impressive from a Flow perspective, but the figure came back lousy. And there’s the speed to her inside and class hike to deal with. I couldn’t have her anywhere near the ML of 5/2. From a value perspective, she’s a contender, but more like 6s.

How much did the rail help #6 DANCE TO BRISTOL last time? Tricky to tell, but it sure didn’t hurt. She’s run three in a row that stack up well with these, and she has passed horses to run well before, so maybe she’ll be able to rate off the other speed. She’s in the mix as well but a little unexciting to me. 8-1.

#7 BETTER LUCKY beat a short field in merely OK time in the slop under a perfect ride by R-r-r-r-r-ramon (who lands elsewhere) in her only race. The ability to pass horses is a plus but it’s possible she was flattered by dynamics and improvement is required. 12-1.

#8 CONDEROSA is another one number Flow downgrade, but at least her figure was strong and earned on a fast surface. Still, it’s quite possible that the pace dynamics and bias that day were the keys to her victory. I’d like to see more and will make her 10-1 accordingly, but a big race wouldn’t surprise me at all and if she’s that price, I’m likely to bet.

#9 WELL KEPT is more speeed and another who Ramon gets off. Hard to know how good she is as she’s caught off tracks in her last three. I don’t know what to make of her to be honest but I’m going to trust that Ramon and his agent made the right call here and hang up a tepid 6-1. That said, usuable if the crowd ignores.

Ramon endes up on another seeming speedster, #10 PERENNIAL SONG. From a FLow perspective, her last was nothing short of awesome. It was only a five horse field but she’d have been justified in getting hammered with the closer-favoring flow there and yet she only lost by 2.5 (she was also wheeling back in 12 days if you want to give her extra credit for that). Plus, it was a G3. She has passed horses before and the outside draw gives Ramon options. I make her the most likely winner at 3-1.

CONCLUSION: It’s hard to know where the crowd is going to go here, they may well end up on my most likely winner, PERENNIAL SONG, and that could make this a pass race. Hopefully the morning line is right and Agave Kiss gets overbet; that could make this a playable race for me. For exotics, I like CONDEROSA a bit and don’t have a strong opinion beyond that but will just look to use anything that’s value on my line with Perennial Song, or perhaps do a win saver.

I’m not going to do a full on preview of the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita, but I will offer up a tip. Or really a tip/antitip combo. Some of the blog readers will recall me pacing around the Paddock Bar this past August, waiting to watch HIERRO in his debut on September 3d. I was very impressed with him physically in the paddock and made a good-sized bet. He ran pretty well in there all things considered, and just seeemed like a horse who was crying out for two turns and wasn’t fast or precocious enough to win first out.

Second time out he once again made a visually nice move, perhaps a hair wide and early, and he once again came up short going shorter than he wants (7 panels). That form looks OK as the winner came back to run to 2d in the Remsen.

Last time, he smashed up a field at Churchill by 5, again at 7, and the form looks OK. Second place finisher Sir Bond dissappointed last night as an even money shot at Fair Grounds last night, but ran the same fig again. And several others in there have validated their figures as well. But the key point for me is that I look for Hierro to get better as he goes longer, based on how he looks and runs, so I think he should run a big race, even though on figs alone it’s hard to separate him from Out of Bounds and Handsome Mike, and he appears behind Secret Circle.

And that brings us to today’s anti-tip. Secret Circle is a theoretical flow move up out of the BC Juvenile Sprint but he just looks trappy to me. He seems sure to be odds-on and yet his figure edge isn’t THAT great, especially considering that it was earned doing something that has little to do with today’s circumstances. I know he had reason to be tired last time, but his stretch run looked awful, like he was looking for a place to lie down. Not exactly the kind of finish that portends improvement going farther.

Blinkers off might help (Baffert 8 for 18, $3.36 ROI the last five years when he goes sprint to route, blinks off), lone speed should definitely help, but I am still just not scared of Secret Circle. And even if he wins, I won’t mind too much because we can bet against him again next time. Presumably he’ll be shipped out of town, hopefully to try 9 furlongs, which I’m not sure he’ll get with the aid of a flat bed truck.

I think what’s really holding me back here is the way the trainer speaks about him. Bob Baffert has a lot in common with Rex Ryan. I’m not saying he’s as braggodocious as the Jets head coach, but there is no denying that the man likes to talk. And yet, Secret Circle has been very much under the radar his whole career. Something has held Baffert back from the aggressive spotting and accompanying verbiage that are typically part of his program. I don’t know why that is, but I find it notable. Even before this race, his quote to Steve Andersen in the DRF was “It will be interesting. I think the jury is still out on the two turns.” (well, they had him saying “turn turns” but I’m pretty sure that was a typo.) If Rex Ryan started talking about how much he admired Bill Belichick the week before a game, I’d bet the Pats. And I won’t be betting Secret Circle.

Well, there you have it. Godspeed out there today. . .