It looks to me like #16 ORB should win the thing. He’s got a nice profile for a classic race and looks to be peaking at the right time. He’s in the hands of a great horseman in Shug McGaughey. The Morning Line price of 7/2 feels like just the price to me but maybe you’ll do a little better than that. I think a lot of people understandably are not wanting to take 4-1 in a chaotic race like this. But if enough wiseguys feel that way, sometimes you’ll see a nice little drift and get some truly great value. That was the case with Barbaro a few years back. And even if the price is just 4s I think I’ll bet him properly. At 7/2, I’d probably just have a token bet.

Another possible way to try to eke out a whiff of value would be to bet ORB to show. There is so much dead money bet win, place and show in a race like this that the show mutuel on a favorite can pay more than it should.

As for longer priced possibilities, #12 ITSMYLUCKYDAY makes a lot of sense. Favored over the tip last time, he’s run a couple of races fast enough to win this.
While I certainly don’t *like* OXBOW, if he is 30-1+, I could throw a few bucks on.

I had the pleasure the other day of hanging out with the gang from Sports on Earth, master mixologist Dale DeGroff, and excellent handicapper Tony Gold. Check out Tony’s picks and this cool video they put together. Julep demo included!!

I’ve been posting a few times a week over at The 50 Licks Blog.

Things around the house are going well. Perrin is a little ball of rock and roll fun:

I have a piece up today over at the SBNation affiliated Blazers Edge blog. You can read it here.

Other than that, just working away on book stuff, trying to find time to devote to horse racing.

Today, I’m simply going to direct you to The Betting Man’s website. And, for more great Cheltenham coverage, make sure you check out what Sean Clancy has to say over at his cool new project, This Is Horse Racing.

A third tipster who you could benefit by following is the great Hugh Taylor, over at At The Races.

Godspeed to you and to all our equine friends. May we all make it up the hill in fine fettle.

This year, I’ve run into a small issue in doing my preparations for Cheltenham — and I mean that literally. The small issue in question is my daughter Perrin, born in December in New York City. I’ve been on the night shifts with her, meaning I haven’t really been able to get up in time to watch an appropriate amount of racing to write an intelligent preview. That’s where my friend Lee Keys, AKA The Betting Man, comes in.

Lee is a propunter who ran a successful tipping service for many years but is now just betting for a living. He’s been kind enough to allow me to share his thoughts on biggest races on Tuesday. Let’s start with the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle:

LEE KEYS: Going through this race and there just does not seem the strength in depth to really say I really want to lay [oppose] the favourite, My Tent Or Yours. However at the prices there are sound reasons for taking him on. Firstly he has looked a bit of a speed horse and conditions on Tuesday in the very first race will certainly be at their most testing (clerk of the course states ground not likely to dry out). Added to that he did have the complete run of the race at Newbury in the Betfair Hurdle (the first three were all handy) and the time of the race wasn’t sparkling. So at the prices the form/time purist will be saying he is more than beatable. My moles on the other hand say he will absolutely hack up and is working the house down so for me I wouldn’t be laying him with such a strong mark from the work riders.

There is one horse here for me that certainly isn’t flattered by his rating and has ticks in every single box is the Willie Mullins trained CHAMPAGNE FEVER, who at 8/1 certainly gets my juices flowing for a decent each way bet. I am scratching my head as to why Jezki (a turn of foot horse) is half the price of my choice? Yes he beat Champagne Fever a touch cosy at Fairyhouse but we are talking one and a bit lengths here and he certainly wasn’t going to win by any further as they went past the line. We already have the course form when winning The Champion Bumper and this horse reminds me a little bit of former winner Al Ferof, who was vulnerable to something with a bit of pace, but nothing could come up the hill like he did when he won this race. Yes, we might have to make our own running, which certainly isn’t ideal but this horse is a genuine top performer and out and out galloper that won’t be stopping up that hill when the bridle horses have had enough. The ground will be testing enough for him and with a race that is certainly lacking in depth I can’t see him being far away here. 8/1 is indeed super value.

Note that since Lee wrote that, CHAMPAGNE FEVER’s price has shortened to 6s, but that still might be good enough for a bet for me in this race. I’d certainly consider saving or betting a forecast [exacta] with MY TENT OR YOURS.

Now on to Lee’s thoughts on the Arkle Chase. . .

LEE KEYS: Not really going to spend much time on this mainly because I can’t really see SIMONSIG beat but he can’t be a betting proposition at around 8/11 in a race of this nature. I do feel that the soft ground will favour him more than Overturn and tactically Geraghty will have the edge here being able to track his rival and make sure he isn’t too far adrift if his rival is getting a soft time in front. SIMONSIG is more of a natural jumper than Overturn, who is all heart more than anything and could well be struggling to cope with SIMONSIG up that hill so I will sit this out from a betting point of view.

As for me, while I can certainly understand who a professional like Lee will pass on SIMONSIG at the odds, for me it’s a little different. I approach Cheltenham primarily as a fan [that's mug for you UK readers]. I have no problem taking a small flyer on a shortie, if only to give me something to root for as they turn for home.

And for the biggest of the big ones, the Champion Hurdle?

LEE KEYS: Hurricane Fly is about a 9/4 shot to emulate his win in 2011 but as a nine year old that has been beating mince for years in Ireland on heavy ground that’s a tricky price. Not that the opposition inspire either, the vibes about Grandouet aren’t good and his chances will depend on the pace of the race. A war of attrition on tacky ground isn’t what he’s about but his chances would strengthen if the pace was slow. He has an abundance of speed but I never think this course suits him that well.

Rates as my best bet of the meeting at the prices and it could well be the start of a couple of years of dominance if he stays injury free.

So that’s that for Day 1. I’ll see if I can coax some more info out of my friends and if I can, perhaps I’ll return later in the week. Oh, and if you do happen to do well based on any of Lee’s info, or even if you don’t, please consider donating to his charity, Tree of Hope. You can find the details here.

I wish I’d had the time and mental energy to do the 100% job on the Breeders’ Cup like I did in years’ past. Hopefully folks out there were able to find the coverage I helped with over at At The Races where we had some nice listed winners: Calidoscopio ($36.40), Zagora ($20.40), and Royal Delta ($5.40).

I figured I’ll just do a quick write up for today on here, though I encourage everyone to the At The Races site for a lot more information.

JUVY TURF
I’m torn between DUNDONNELL and GEORGE VANCOUVER. The one I wish I’d mentioned on At The Races as a longshot is FANTASTIC MOON, who Rob Dove points out was a de facto Flow Move Up in the Royal Lodge, not unlike last year’s winner (tipped in this space), WROTE.

F and M SPRINT
I’m mostly sticking with the top three I list over on At The Races here. GROUPIE DOLL may be too bet to back. If that’s the case, the crazy one I’d consider tossing in is RUMOR, for the great Richard Mandella.

DIRT MILE

Here’s a link to the At The Races stuff. I really do like JOHN SCOTT here. Could be a day maker.

TURF SPRINT
Always a tricky race. At The Races profiles here. MIZDIRECTION is the one of these I keep coming back to at the prices.

JUVENILE
I don’t have much to add to what I wrote here.

TURF
You can read what I have to say about ST NICHOLAS ABBEY over on At The Races or on the Forbes website. Lots of good stuff in that article.

SPRINT
You can find the ATR links here. I wish I’d mentioned JIMMY CREED as well.

MILE
Fascinating race. Full thoughts here. When WISE DAN crossed the wire in the Fourstardave at Saratoga, I wrote “BC Mile?” in my notebook. I think I have to stick with that. Though the more I look at MOONLIGHT CLOUD, I am tempted to play her. EXCELEBRATION is so good and so cool, but this does have the field of one of those Coolmore BC afterthougths that don’t go so well. Still, he’s the best and fastest of them all.

CLASSIC
Another head scratcher. I profile six I think can win on the ATR site. The bomber I’d like to mention is NONIOS, who I thought would go to the other race. He is a significant Flow Move-Up and a horse I like generally. FORT LARNED and FLAT OUT also look value at the current prices.

Best of luck to all.

This is just a quick, unscheduled blog post to share some thoughts about the Sauper Saturday card at Belmont. It’s not official yet but it looks like I’ll be covering the Breeders’ Cup again (deets as I get them). But that means I’ll be popping up here again from time to time, and saturating right around BC time.

Life is going well post-SAR. I’ve picked up some cool freelance gigs and am kicking the tires on a couple of new book ideas. Susan is feeling well still and we’re both the appropriate mix of excited and terrified.

On to the races. . .

BELDAME:

ROYAL DELTA is the most likely winner by my reckoning, but regular readers know I’m always going on about “Mott with a target,” and this ain’t the target. Still, an A level contender on figures and form, a true Grade 1 animal, and I was blown away by how she looked when I clapped eyes on her while schooling in Saratoga. Could easily win and still have plenty in the tank for the BC Distaff (yea, I know that’s not the name anymore but it’s my blog, humor me). IT’S TRICKY ran a blinder last time after falling on her face at the break. She might have another big one in her, but I could also see her being overbet off the trip. She’s the other A, but my gut tells me to prefer ROYAL DELTA, who has her on the book twice.

KELSO:

A well rested TAPIZAR, is a dangerous TAPIZAR, and he gets the nod from me. He should be out winging and is fast enough to win unless SHACKLEFORD or TO HONOR AND SERVE bring their A games. JERSEY TOWN is an intrguing possible price play after being in the hunt in the Forego. Is he still good enough? I don’t know. But anyhting above 8s I’d have to consider value.

Of the two ML faves mentioned above, THAS is a bit of an in-and-outer, with the goal being the next race. SHAQ makes more sense to me, if he’s still a horse. He was probably the lay of the meet in the Vandy, stuck on a tricky rail at an unsuitable distance. I don’t really have info as to how he’s done since, but maybe the topsheeters let you get a whiff of value. Don’t worry if he sweats up, that’s just him. I could use/save at 2-1 or above. I’ve always loved THAS but if he beats me today, he beats me.

VOSBURGH:

Will SEAN AVERY be able to score in his second start off the bench? He’s got the races to run back to and I think it’s worth noting that the last might even be better than it looked given that he was close up on a closer’s track with a closer-favoring flow. He was also unruly at the gate before the race. 3s is probably the right price. Elisha Cuthbert won’t be backing, but I might.

Multirace players might want to include my old pal JUSTIN PHILLIP, a fast horse who loves it around here. Three of these have him on the book, but he has various excuses.

FLOWER BOWL:

It’s not easy for me to pick against I’m A Dreamer after she delivered me my best wagering day of the summer, but looking objectively, I prefer NAHRAIN today. Dreamer did get an ideal set-up last time and NAHRAIN’s figures and form look just as good if not better and she projects to be a better price. Multirace players might want to use both.

TURF CLASSIC:

I’ve given up doubting LITTLE MIKE’s ability to get the distance. I didn’t think he’d be still going strong at the end of the Million and yet he was, and that was a stronger race than the Sword Dancer, so I give him an edge (tactically and class wise) over Point of Entry. He’ll get his ground as well. In fact, if you want to get a little jiggy, you can toss the chalk at odds on and also back TREASURE BEACH. I was skeptical about him in the Million, but he ran really well, and might just be rounding back into form for ol’ AOB.

JCGC:

I am having trouble separating the runners coming out of the Whitney so I may let price help me decide. The Mott runners project to be the shorter of the two and as I’ve written elsewhere, they might be less than fully cranked. That leaves us with FORT LARNED, who I loved visually in the paddock at Saratoga (why I didn’t save on him I still have no earthly idea) and HYMN BOOK, who was my top one that day. Both are bred to excel with the extra distance and figure tough at fair prices.

Happy wagering!

The Degenerate Doubleheader

The End of Something

Turn On Your Radio

The Case For Sunset Racing

Advice to My Younger Self

How the Gang From the Paddock Bar Saved a Marriage

Weight Loss Advice From a Jockey

The Sinorice Story

Anticapping (Guest Blog by Jonathan Silverman)

We’re Gonna Need a Bigger Boat

The immediate future of the blog is a little unclear. I’ll definitely be posting links to the files from my recent radio tribute to my dad soon. I may opt to do a “Race of the Week” type preview on here, I may wait until the Breeders’ Cup to be more active, we’ll just ahve to see. As you might imagine, there is a backlog of freelance editorial work that needs dealing with.

I do plan on starting a blog for the new Rolling Stones book that will be both about the Stones but also hopefully about my Dad and old WNEW. That’s going to live over here. I’ll pass along more deets when I have them.

BANKROLL PLAY:
Race 5: $100 to win on #13 SILENT DANCING

Why handicap when you can Ramon Dominguez and his agent Steve Rushing do it for you? This filly at 12-1 ML is actually Ramon’s first call over the 2 at 3-1 ML. Does that mean anything? Maybe, maybe not. But this filly’s figs put her in the mix and she should enjoy the switch back to grass on pedigree (dam sire is Smart Strike). Let’s fire our last bullet and try to get out.

We’ve been getting after it a bit this weekend. Matt and Todd are up from NYC, and our friends Scott and Jane have been making their annual Skidmore visit to drop off their son, Max. Last night, they all came over for dinner along with Dave, Jen, Patrick, Ann, and Andrew. We did pizzas on the Big Green Egg, followed by burgers. Jen and Dave brought the makings for a phenomenal Nicoise salad that we enjoyed under the lights in the backyard. We drank a bottle of large format Shiraz, Mitolo G.A.M 2005 McLaren Vale.

Now I just have to figure out what to do with all these leftovers.

BANKROLL PLAY:

Race 9: $100 to win on #5 EXCAPER. This is a horse I’ve always liked and he looks poised for a big effort. I’m always a fan of the Woodbine turf shippers up here. Let’s get this one in.

RESULTS: -$568.75 after Pearl in the Sand’s horror show of a race cost us $100.

Race 8, BERNARD BARUCH G2, 4:39

On paper, this one looks like a possible wire job for DOMINUS. Todd A. Pletcher is so good at spotting his horses and getting them to fire big in the right spot. Even if, as the photo above proves, he is human. He waits in line at Shake Shack just like the rest of us. Assuming a fair flow, DATA LINK looks like the fastest horse, but I’m not sure this is a fair fight. Must use for serial exotics but I might try to beat in the race. SKY BLAZER is a horse I’ve liked (and blogged about) in the past. He’s got races that would make him a real threat and might step up and win a big one someday. I’d need a price north of 6-1, but I’d nibble if we got that.

Race 9, Forego G1, 5:12

JACKSON BEND has a big old excuse from his last race: he was thorougly compromised by a speed favoring flow, and he was wide to boot. He’s a tough horse and I won’t be betting against him today. A single for me.

Race 10, Woodward G1, 5:45

Wow, super cool race. After careful consideration, I am going to go with TO HONOR AND SERVE and top. He’s done his best work around two turns, so I can forgive the fact that Triple M has him on the book (big difference between a one turn nine panels than a two turn nine panels). I also wouldn’t count out SAR horse for course, STAY THIRSTY. He might well trip out best of all.

BANKROLL PLAY OF THE DAY:

Race 4: $100 to win on #3 PEARL IN THE SAND.

This was the one that Mr. Hooper meant to back on 8/13. SHe is truly overdue to break her maiden. She just didn’t seem fast enough for 5 1/2 furlongs last time, but she galloped out best. I’m not criticizing the morning line, because her form looks pretty weird, but I feel confident in saying that 7/2 would be a gift.

RESULTS: NO BET yesterday, after Wild One’s scratch. Still stuck $468.75.