First off, in case you missed it, here is a link to the first episode in this year’s TC Vidcast Series, starring my favorite racing pundit. . . me.
It pays to not be too literal about speed figures at this stage in this season with 3-year olds and with that in mind, let’s take a quick look at the Hutch, the likely subject of episode 2 in the TC Vidcast Series. . .
#1 TARPY’S GOAL looks a little one-paced for a sprinter to me, and also more exposed than his rivals here. Not out of it but an underlay at the ML in my book. 12-1.
#2 WILDCAT CREEK has it all to find on figures and class. 25-1.
#3 THUNDER MOCCASIN impressed mightily in the debut, though it must be pointed out that the early pace and track bias suited him. Still, a deserving favorite based on that effort, but likely to be overbet. 3/2.
#4 QUICK WIT is probably not fast enough but he has a couple of things going for him. I think he might have the best late kick of this bunch, and while that rarely matters on dirt, this could be the kind of spot where it does. I expect a good ride from Ramon to get on the board. 8-1.
#5 IL VILLANO will be a fashionable pick in some circles based on some back numbers and a return to sprinting. I am a bit skeptical, however, as the wins/good figs have been earmed on the engine against weaker. A contender, still. 5-1.
Perhaps a stake in his second start was just too much too soon for #6 EVER SO LUCKY, who was the talk of the backstretch before his visually stunning debut. This has been the plan for awhile and the Master has speculated in interviews that he might be more of a miler type than a TC prospect in the end. That said, the screws won’t be tight and the rep has exceeded the figs to this point meaning he’ll be an underlay at the ML but he still vibes to be a serious horse. 7/2.
CONCLUSION: Looks pass-y. But I could find a bet on my line or might mess around in a small trifecta 3-5-6/3-5-6/4.