I was only “right” about one of the four races I wrote about yesterday, reminding me that I think I like the full previews I do sometimes more than just the quick hits. With the full write-ups, I feel like I’m doing my job just by giving good information, in the other style, I feel lousy if I don’t get the winner. And, naturally, no one can do that all the time — depsite what the touts standing outside of Saratoga Racecourse might say.
Despite the middling result, I had a pleasing evening. On my friend Dempsey’s suggestion, we checked out the Brooklyn Edible Social Club.. Wow, was it good and fun. A communal dinner party with delicious food prepared in the exact style I like — ingredient-driven goodness. As my new friend, Rodney, said, “it’s one of the best kept secrets in Brooklyn.” In particular, this would be a really fun thing for any of my English readers (you know who you are) to check on on their next trips to New York.
OK, let’s do a quickfire Holy Bull preview:
The note on #1 SILVER MAX from his debut reads, “wait for turf.” That note appears to be right as he’s done some nice work on the green (or in the case of the GP turf course, green and brown). Not really seeing why he’s going to take a G3 back on dirt. 50-1.
#2 CONSORTIUM looks awfully strong. Two fast races, backed up by advanced figs, and the last is probably a hair better than it looks as it was earned up near the lead on a strip that was favoring closers. This may have given today’s rival, Algorithms, an advantage. I make him 3/1.
#3 MY ADONIS does not look fast enough to make an impact here, though he does make me think of Adrian Adonis, so that’s worth something. 30-1.
Your favorite is #4 HANSEN, who set fast splits on a track that was not favoring speed to hold off Union Rags in the BC Juvy. From a trip point of view, UR had a tough go of it there, but it’s certainly notable that it’s this guy, not UR, who comes out the upgrade just looking at the Racing Flow data. Lovely gray blur might have to work harder than usual to make the top here — everyone and his brother could see he was loose as a goose last time. His class and figure edge make his candicacy for favoritism legit, but he’s no cinch. The ML has it about right from a value perspective. 6/5. It will be fun to see if he’s trained on.
#5 FORT LOUDON actually ran OK in the Juvy given the ground he lost and his overall trip. He was probably more like 4-6 lengths worse than Hansen as opposed to the 9 that a lietral interpretation of the form suggests. Still, that’s a lot to find, and he is kind of exposed based on the rest of his form. My choice for 4th. 30-1.
#6 ALGORITHMS will be a wiseguy selection in some corners and it’s easy to see why based on that last run. But there is this idea that he had an easier time than Consortium based on how the track was playing, and it’s notable that it was the latter, not the former, who was made 4/5 in there. He certainly has every chance, I just think it’s likely he won’t be value. Playable at the right number. 3-1.
CONCLUSION: It’s probably a pass race. If I were making “newspaper” style picks, I think I’d go 1) Hansen 2) Consortium 3) Algorithms. Nothing against Kiaran McLaughlin at all, I’ve just noticed that I’m not particularly simpatico with his barn in my handicapping, so I try to regress all my opinions on his runners to the mean. That said, I could bet Consortium if he goes off longer than my line, at least in exactas with Hansen. A very interesting race to watch, at the least.
