The Unbearable Lightness of Betting

I just realized that my blog turned one year old yesterday. While it’s hardly all growns up at this stage, I feel like it has come a long way in a year and will continue to evolve in a way that makes it fun for you to read and me to write. This seemed like as good a day as any to take a quick crack at what the title of the blog means to me.

Yes, it’s a halfway decent pun, and I do like silly puns. But to me, the real rationale behind the phrase The Unbearable Lightness of Betting strikes at a core issue in stepping up my game as a horseplayer. The title comes from Milan Kundera’s wonderful philosophical novel, The Unbearable Lightness of Being. Now I’m not exactly Professor Derrida when it comes to literary criticism but the way I always understood it, the title refers to the idea that the import many people give to the decisions they make and the events that shape our lives — that things are meant to be a certain way for example — exists in great contrast to the way things actually are, which is pretty much governed by randomness. For me, it also plugs into chaos theory and the idea of the black swan: some small, seemingly insignificant thing happens and it ends up having unimaginable consequences (positive or negative). Put another way, we don’t struggle in life because life is so hard, but because it’s so easy.

I hope that makes some amount of sense. Even if it does, the next question you’d rightly ask me is, “Hey PTF, what in the blue hell does this have to do with playing the horses?” It’s all about that last sentence of the preceeding graph. Horse racing isn’t hard to win at because it’s so hard, it’s hard because it’s so easy. So easy to come up with a play based on ephemera, so easy to second guess and fall into the trap of hindsight, but most of all, just so easy to BET. To say, what the hell, the guy on my left just hit a super big enough to buy a used car, maybe I’ll try to do that, too. This super “light” why-not-bet approach was something that held me back for years. I’d have one or two good opinions in a day and be right enough with those but lose on the rest of the card and not win enough on the day. The occasional “scores” were frittered away by generally undisciplined play.

Let’s back up a second and talk philosophy a bit more. It’s very difficult to accept the role that randomness plays, in life and at the races. You can do all the tape and chart work, you can make notes every race from the paddock, you can do absolutely everything right. . .and still get beat a filthy nose to some improbable horse that no self-respecting player would ever have because of a trip or an unexpected pace scenario. Then you hear the mug standing next to you brag about how he has this triple for some inane reason and you get this buzzing feeling: why do I bother to do all this work? Why not just do the basic work and throw a dart? It just all seems so *light*. We see people get lucky every day at the races, soon maybe it will be our turn to be lucky. And therein lies the trap. You can’t aspire to be lucky, you can only to aspire to be good, to control those things that are in the realm of our control.

And that’s what I get out of the philosophical underpinnings of Kundera’s book as well. How do you live a life governed by randomness, when you accept that the causal connection between doing good deeds and having good things happen to you, as espoused by many religions, isn’t maybe so strong? For me, it’s just like with the racing: simply because you can act however you want and reap some of life’s seeming rewards doesn’t mean you’ll end up a happy person. I believe that contentment can only come from within, from being the best person you can be, and controlling what you can control. And that’s how life imitates the Kentucky Derby.

Back on the horse racing front, this has been an evolutionary process for me. I’ve tried to take steps to make betting a “heavier” act for me: no turf sprints, no claimers, very limited New York breds. I’ve also tried to add layers to my betting: I’ll say to myself, “I’ll bet these races *IF* I get these prices *AND* I like what I see in the betting.” This leads to a lot of passing and that’s a good thing. “Good no bet,” is something I emphasize at the track every time it’s appropriate.

I think writing this blog has helped too, as it gives me a focus beyond the wagering dollar. I’ve also tried to add weight to my bets by writing them down, by having them *mean* something. So that, my friends, is what the title of this blog means to me. And OK, you got me, I like the silly pun, too.

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I hereby declare that Monday will be link day.

Here’s one from a while back I loved, tying into some of the ideas above, about the great Pittsburgh Phil

Phenomenal piece from the Independent about the great Henry Cecil. Cecil’s philosophy about dealing with depression reminds me a lot of my friend Brian Biegel, with whom I had the pleasure of working with on Miracle Ball.

And lastly, I was surprised how much I liked this piece as I’ve never been a huge fan of this guy but he knocked this out of the park, or cricket pitch or whatever.

Enough of that, on to today’s races!

BANKROLL PLAY:

In Race 1, I’ll do $50 win on #3 ITSMYHONOR.

It’s not the easiest day for a bankroll play as I’d really need to see these maidens in the flesh before committing but I will say that I like ITSMYHONOR in the curtain jerker for the potent Hushion-Dominguez combination. She was bet to favoritism first out and should presumably come on for the run. It’s not an easy assignment but I have just enough questions about the key competitors to make her a bankroll play. (Joonbi/more exposed, beaten by tip last time, Fire Assay/I do like some but JRV off, Malibu Cougar/might need it, World Harmony/too far back). If I were to exact-ize, I’d probs key Itsmyhonor over Fire Assay and Malibu Cougar if she’s fit (she wasn’t for her debut according to my notes). Looks could turn this op around obviously.

MEET TO DATE RESULTS:
+130 (won $77.50 yesterday)

And last but not least, because I missed this opportunity yesterday and it’s probably the greatest video in the history of videos: